That sense of insecurity felt by Afghans would flow through the economy like a virus. Without the ability to exchange or the backing of dollars flowing into the country, the value of the Afghan currency could collapse, inflation could accelerate and the mix of violence and chaos could be prolonged.Īminullah Amin, a currency changer, said Friday there are concerns about looters and the structure of the new government. Currency trading stopped Sunday when the Taliban took control of Kabul. The extent of the problem could be seen at the shuttered Afghan money exchange market. The war effort also left the country highly dependent on trade with imports of $8 billion annually, almost 10 times more than what was being exported. Afghanistan gained mobile phones, Coca-Cola and Airbnb listings - all of which need access to global economic institutions. Per capita gross domestic product has increased nearly three-fold during the war, according to the World Bank. When the Taliban last ran Afghanistan two decades ago, the average Afghan survived on less than a dollar a day. “The Taliban are not going to be popular.” still retains a lot of political heft in the global, political and economic systems to twist some arms,” Rediker said. “I’m not sure they do.”Įven if the Taliban could get money from the IMF, Douglas Rediker, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the process “would take, I think, months at the earliest, if at all.” But he also anticipates that the United States would find a way to block the release of any money through the IMF system. “I think they’re going through sort of an existential crisis about do they want to be recognized by the international community as being a legitimate government,” Biden told ABC News Wednesday. President Joe Biden conceded that he doesn’t know whether the Taliban want to be part of the broader global economy - which means it might be comfortable going without any funds. While the money would make it easier for the Taliban to govern, government officials have indicated that it’s unclear who would be the points of contact within Afghanistan on financial issues. 23 from the International Monetary Fund, which has effectively blocked the release because of a “lack of clarity” regarding the recognition of a new Afghan government. Afghanistan was also slated to access about $450 million on Aug. But Cordesman added, “To have a pressure point, you have to be willing to negotiate in ways the Taliban can accept.”Īs of now, the Taliban government cannot access almost all of the Afghanistan central bank’s $9 billion in reserves, most of which is held by the New York Federal Reserve.
The stranded funds are one of the few potential sources of pressure that the U.S.
government on Afghan strategy and works at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If they don’t have jobs, they don’t get fed,” said Anthony Cordesman, who advised the U.S. The shortfall could lead to an economic crisis that would only fuel a deeper humanitarian one for the roughly 36 million Afghans expected to stay in the country. 31 deadline to withdraw its troops from the country.īut the Taliban also do not currently have institutional structures to receive the money - a sign of the challenges it might confront as it tries to govern an economy that has urbanized and tripled in size since they were last in power two decades ago. Tens of thousands of people remain to be evacuated ahead of the United States’ Aug. and international institutions, a possible leverage point as tense evacuations proceed from the airport in the capital of Kabul. Those funds are largely controlled by the U.S. WASHINGTON (AP) - The Taliban face a frontal challenge in cementing control of Afghanistan: Money.ĭespite their dominant military blitz over the past week, the Taliban lack access to billions of dollars from their central bank and the International Monetary Fund that would keep the country running during a turbulent shakeup.
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